Among them, long-term bonds are more uncertain because of the long time, and there will be risk compensation, so the interest rate is usually higher than that of short-term bonds, but if the yield of short-term bonds is higher than that of long-term bonds . , that's called an inverted yield curve.
Dianjinqi fell, taiwan stocks once fell below 16,000 points and backtested the multi-party gap
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The appearance of an inverted yield curve tends to indicate a massive tightening of overall funding. For example, the mortgage interest used to be only about 1.31%, and now it suddenly rises to 1.56%, and the anxin family project has risen to 1.68%. If the mortgage logo design loan amount is 10 million in 20 years, the annual interest will be 14,000 more. If it keeps rising like the united states , the general public may be short of cash, unable to pay the mortgage, the house will be foreclosed, and they will not feel at ease when they start a family.
If the above-mentioned shortage of funds is applied to a company, it may cause the company to close down, and if there are 100 people in that company, all of them will lose their jobs, which will trigger more chain effects.According to past statistics, 6 to 24 months after the inversion of the yield rate, there is often a major economic recession, or there is a black swan event. Let’s take a closer look: